Friday 17 May 2013

GFX Morning Commentary May 17th, 2013


Good Morning,

 
Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US Dollar 1.0215 – 1.0285

 
Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro 1.3140 – 1.3215

 
Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling 1.5600 – 1.5680

 
The commodity based currencies are under considerable pressure. The Canadian dollar is the hardest hit currency from overnight in what can only be described as a very volatile 24 hours. The Canadian dollar has lost a full cent from its highest level yesterday after poor U.S. economic data hit the greenback.

 In late afternoon yesterday the San Francisco Fed President John Williams said the central bank could start trimming its $85 billion monthly bond buying program(quantitative easing) as early as the summer. The US dollar Immediately firmed on the news.  

 The US dollar has firmed against the other major currencies but to a lesser extent. Any tapering of the U.S. bond buying is seen as a positive as the government doesn’t have to print as much money. I find the timing by the Fed official odd given the worse than expected run of U.S. economic data especially the surge yesterday in jobless claims. While the U.S. unemployment rate hovers around the current 7.4% I’m sure any pullback in QE will be much later than the summer period.

 Today we have the Canadian consumer price index release at 8:30am with y/y inflation expected at .9% down from the previous month of 1.0%. In the U.S. we have Michigan confidence and leading indicators at 10:00am.

Dow futures are positive up 35 in pre-market evidence that the equity markets are not overly concerned by the recent chatter of reducing stimulus. Oil is also firmer but gold is off on US Dollar strength.

 
GFX Morning Currency Rates
Friday May 17, 2013
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0252 1.0196
CAD/USD 0.9742 0.9807
EUR/USD 1.2865 1.2864
EUR/CAD 1.3193 1.312
STG/CAD 1.5628 1.5512
AUD/CAD 1.0005 0.9997
CAD/JPY 99.81 100.66
CAD/CHF 0.941 0.949
CAD/HKD 7.5503 7.5916
CAD/CNY 5.9867 6.0284
CAD/MXN 12.0165 12.0174
Commodities
Gold $1,379.00 $1,371.00
OIL $95.64 $93.50
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE 83.9 83.91
OPEN 84.05 84.07

 

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