GFX Morning FX Commentary May 9th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0000-1.0075

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3170-1.3260

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5580-1.5660

The US Dollar is marginally stronger to start the day in very quiet overnight trading conditions, a lot of Europe will be closed for the next two days for the Ascension Day holiday so I would not be surprised if we see subdued trading out of Europe for the rest of the week.

In the UK this morning the Bank of England announced that they are keeping interest rates at 0.5% and not making any changes to the stimulus program. We don’t get any colour on the meeting until the minutes are released in two weeks’ time, I will be interested to see if the vote was unanimous on keeping the stimulus program at current levels. Sterling was trading a bit higher for most of the overnight session as it reacted to a stronger than expected Industrial Production report but the rate did not move much on the interest rate announcement.

Not much to say for USD.CAD we are confined again to a tight range as we await tomorrow’s Employment report out of Ottawa. Up today we do have some US secondary data which should not have much of an impact, given the current trend is for a stronger Canada I would not be surprised if we hit parity today, but either way I would not expect much of a trading range.

Just a note on the Employment report tomorrow, in tomorrow’s  morning commentary I will report on what the market is expecting for the report but given that the economists have been way off on their predictions I am not expecting many of their predictions to be even close to the actual number so I think we should see lots of volatility around the release. Given that most traders who are speculating on the Canadian Dollar are short the Loonie (as reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange) the risk is that if we get a strong Employment report the we could see USD.CAD really drop as these speculators rush to cover their positions. Make sure you call us today and get your orders in so you will be ready to take advantage of this expected volatility.

I will be offline today as I head to fracture clinic to have my six-month checkup on my new hip. I think I will ask for my money back, the surgeon said I would play better golf after the surgery and yet I still stink.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.002			1.0043
CAD/USD		0.998			0.9957
EUR/USD		1.3153			1.3122
EUR/CAD		1.3182			1.3182
STG/CAD		1.5605			1.5568
AUD/CAD		1.0252			1.0241
CAD/JPY		98.47			98.47
CAD/CHF		0.9322			93.58
CAD/HKD		7.7271			7.7056
CAD/CNY		6.1156			6.112
CAD/MXN		11.9455			11.9853
Commodities
Gold		$1,469.00			$1,452.00
OIL		$96.28			$95.50
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.98			82.36
OPEN		81.96			82.14