Monday 19 August 2013

GFX Morning FX Commentary August 19th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0290-1.0360

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3770-1.3850

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6150-1.6230

The US Dollar is marginally weaker to start the new North American trading week in a very quiet overnight trading session. EURO.USD jumped to trade at 1.3370 on reports from the Bundesbank (German Central Bank) that interest rates in Europe will most likely rise if inflation begins to be a concern. Just a quick reminder to readers that Germany no longer controls their own interest rate, European interest rates are the  realm of the European Central Bank so if Germany wanted to vote to increase interest rates because they felt inflation was taking off I am sure there will be other countries voting not to increase as that will put pressure in their deficit reduction targets. It will be a very interesting situation if the ECB must consider raising interest rates in the future, I do not believe their economy could withstand higher interest rates at the moment.

The Canadian Dollar overnight trading range was confined to less than 15 points, so another very quiet overnight market for the Loonie. With absolutely no economic data due out today I think we will be in for another quiet session, I still favour a move higher for USD.CAD towards 1.0400 but again I think it will be a slow move higher.

We do get some interesting Canadian statistics this week including Retail Sales on Thursday and CPI on Friday and the US Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday so hopefully that will give the currency markets some direction at the moment. Other than that I think it will be another quiet week as we continue to move through quiet summer markets.

Have a great week
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0339 1.0324
CAD/USD 0.9672 0.9686
EUR/USD 1.336 1.3336
EUR/CAD 1.3816 1.3772
STG/CAD 1.6184 1.6152
AUD/CAD 0.9467 0.9478
CAD/JPY 94.8 94.35
CAD/CHF 0.8948 0.8964
CAD/HKD 7.4781 7.4873
CAD/CNY 5.92 5.9224
CAD/MXN 12.6098 12.4509
Commodities
Gold $1,374.00 $1,365.00
OIL $107.13 $107.50
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE 81.34 81.18
OPEN 81.27 81.26
US 10YR YIELD 2.83% 2.75%

 

 

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