GFX Morning FX Commentary August 21st, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0390-1.0470

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3940-1.4020

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6340-1.6420

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the financial markets get ready for the release of the minutes from the last US Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates. With Financial markets fixated on when the US Federal Reserve will start to turn the taps off on their stimulus program any sign that there is not a clear opinion on when tapering should happen will cause the stock markets to get hit and the US Dollar to jump, so either way I look for some enhanced volatility on the currency markets this afternoon.

Overnight the Euro and Sterling  were both weaker against  the stronger US Dollar, we are also seeing flows continue to exit the Asian Emerging Market currencies as both the Indian Rupee and Indonesian Rupiah were both much weaker. At the moment none of this money is coming into Canada as the Loonie is getting weaker not only against the US Dollar but also the Loonie is considerably weaker against the Euro and Sterling, I look for this trend to continue over the next few sessions so if you need Euro or Sterling you might want to buy it sooner than later.

Up today, as I mention everything will be determined by the Fed minutes, if there is a common opinion that Stimulus will start to slow down next month then look for the US Dollar to surge and Equities to get hit, if just the opposite is true, if the majority of committee members still feel that the stimulus program must remain in place then Equities will jump and the US Dollar will trade weaker. If we get a dramatic move after the announcement I will send out a currency alert.

Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0427			1.0372
CAD/USD		0.959			0.9641
EUR/USD		1.3384			1.338
EUR/CAD		1.3956			1.388
STG/CAD		1.6334			1.6244
AUD/CAD		0.9418			0.9405
CAD/JPY		93.46			93.74
CAD/CHF		0.8823			0.8874
CAD/HKD		7.4151			7.4545
CAD/CNY		5.8715			5.9023
CAD/MXN		12.5571			12.5945
Commodities
Gold		$1,364.00			$1,305.00
OIL		$105.07			$106.54
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.94			81.28
OPEN		81.16			81.09
US 10YR YIELD		2.81%			2.88%