GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0250-1.0375

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3750-1.3875

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5960-1.6100

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning in fairly quiet FX markets. With the positive numbers coming out of China recently the fear of a global slowdown is abating and investors are again thinking that the US Federal Reserve will be able to slow the taps on stimulus at some point this year. Further evidence that China was pulling back from the brink of a big slowdown was produced overnight which showed Chinese Industrial Production rose 9.7% year over year,  well above the 7% growth rates that the Chinese government is setting as a minimum standard to uphold.

The US Dollar is set for its first weekly decline in many weeks so we may be seeing the beginning of a change in market sentiment, if this continues into next week then we may be looking at the US Dollar starting to trade much weaker over the short-term. The big winner in all of this is the Australian Dollar which has started to recover and is up over 200 points from the .8900 level to trade back near .9200 today.

USD.CAD is opening fully 100 points lower than it did yesterday as the Canadian market finally played catch up with other commodity currencies. As I mention yesterday the Loonie had been losing ground to currencies other than the US Dollar but that trend finally reversed itself yesterday and we saw the Loonie stage a big rally. As I mentioned in the currency alert that I sent out yesterday, if you need US Dollars in the short-term then I think you should take advantage of this move.

Up today Canadian Dollar trading will be dominated early-on by the Canadian Employment for the month of July. In June the economy lost 400 jobs and for July market expectation is for 6K new jobs to have been created and no change to the unemployment rate of 7.1%. A mildly negative report should push USD.CAD back up towards 1.0350, a mildly positive report will get USD.CAD back towards 1.0250. If the report is wildly different than expectation then we will see greatly increased volatility, regardless of what you need to do (buy or sell USD) make sure you have your orders in before 08:30 to take advantage of any potential moves.

If we do get a big swing I will send out a currency alert.

 

Have a great weekend.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0301			1.0408
CAD/USD		0.9708			0.9608
EUR/USD		1.3374			1.3357
EUR/CAD		1.3778			1.3902
STG/CAD		1.6			1.6142
AUD/CAD		0.9428			0.9448
CAD/JPY		93.66			92.53
CAD/CHF		0.8933			0.8846
CAD/HKD		7.5074			7.4313
CAD/CNY		5.9396			5.88
CAD/MXN		12.2205
Commodities
Gold		$1,311.00			$1,288.00
OIL		$104.56			$104.41
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.08			81.29
OPEN		81.06			81.18
US 10YR YIELD		2.59%			2.60%