GFX Morning FX Commentary August 6th, 2013

Good Morning

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0350-1.0430

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3750-1.3830

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5620-1.5700

The US Dollar is marginally weaker as the Euro has reached a 7-week high on the back of better than expected manufacturing report. In Germany the Factory Order report for June increased by 3.8% over the previous month which was a much higher gain than was expected, economists are starting to report that the EU economy may have bottomed out and that a rebound is underway but it will be much slower that other regions around the Globe.

The UK also reported better than expected industrial production numbers, it looks ever so slowly that Europe is starting down the road to recovery. Sterling jumped a little against the US Dollar to reach a high of 1.5300 but trading ranges remains subdued.

In interest rate news, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key lending rate overnight but the Aussie Dollar actually gained on the announcement as the RBA in their statement dampened the outlook for any more immediate rate cuts. The Aussie has been one of the weakest currencies over the last few months so this announcement may but a floor under AUD.USD and we may see it push a bit higher from here.

The Canadian Dollar traded in the 1.0350 t0 1.0400 trading range since then markets opened Sunday afternoon in Asia, after the poor US jobs report on Friday USD.CAD fell quickly to the low end of the range but the Loonie could not hold onto the gains and as been trading weaker since then. The market certainly has the feel that it wants to break above 1.0400 this week but at the moment it is running into some resistance.

We do have a slew of Canadian economic releases this week cumulating in the Canadian jobs report on Friday, up today we get trade data out of the US and Canada so if that data is below expectation that may give USD.CAD the push above 1.0400.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.037			1.0389
CAD/USD		0.9644			0.9625
EUR/USD		1.3271			1.3202
EUR/CAD		1.3775			1.3718
STG/CAD		1.5942			1.5744
AUD/CAD		0.931			0.9243
CAD/JPY		94.52			96.04
CAD/CHF		0.8931			0.9024
CAD/HKD		7.4512			7.4441
CAD/CNY		5.8941			5.9003
CAD/MXN		12.2084			12.3833
Commodities
Gold		$1,292.60			$1,288.00
OIL		$106.87			$107.50
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82			82.42
OPEN		81.85			82.51
US 10YR YIELD		2.64%			2.72%