GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0880-1.0940

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4310-1.4370

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8835-1.8890

The US Dollar is stronger as North America markets re-open after taking a day of rest to celebrate all our labours. The big mover overnight was the British Pound, it was much weaker on reports from the latest poll that showed the Scottish Independence movement gaining ground in the run up to the September 18^th election on independence.  I still think that a vote to separate is a long shot to happen but at the very least the Pound should remain volatile ahead of the vote.

The Canadian Dollar is weaker this morning and well off it best levels after Burger King did its thing and purchased all it CAD for the Tim Horton’s acquisition. This is not a surprising move as time and time again we see markets rebound when a one-off event leave the market and the currencies return to their fundamental levels, it is one of the main reasons I was advocating for US Dollar buyers to take advantage of the move as these types of moves are very short-lived and this seems to be the case one again. USD.CAD is returning to its levels of early last week and now will trade once again on market fundamentals.

This will be the busiest week of the month when it comes to economic releases, we have the Bank of Canada tomorrow followed by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday and then we close off the week with both Canadian and US Employment reports, make sure you get your overnight orders in early as I get a sense that now that the summer is over volatility will return to the FX markets.

Up today we get some secondary data out of the US but for the most part USD.CAD will start to get setup for the Bank of Canada tomorrow. Now that Burger King is out of the way I still look for USD.CAD to break higher, how fast USD.CAD jumped confirms my view but for today we should trade in a tight range.

Have a great month.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0914			1.0843
CAD/USD		0.9162			0.9225
EUR/USD		1.3114			1.3183
EUR/CAD		1.4314			1.4297
STG/CAD		1.8045			1.7992
AUD/CAD		1.0135			1.0128
CAD/JPY		96.11			95.86
CAD/CHF		0.893			0.8932
CAD/HKD		7.0799			7.1268
CAD/CNY		5.9071			5.6648
CAD/MXN		12.0234			12.0633
Commodities
Gold		$1,271.00			$1,285.80
OIL		$95.16			$94.95
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.74			82.52
OPEN		82.96			82.51
US 10YR YIELD		2.38%			2.34%